SEC's Bitcoin ETF Puzzle: Can Pieces Finally Fall into Place?
Crypto enthusiasts have held their breath for years, yearning for a traditional, easy-to-access Bitcoin ETF. Enter the SEC, the gatekeeper, holding the key to unlocking this coveted option. But, as usual, the path to approval is anything but straightforward.
Deadline Looms, Challenges Mount: December 29th marks the final S-1 amendment deadline for ETF applicants. Yet, hurdles remain. The "cash-create" model, favored by most applicants, requires partnering with Authorized Participants (APs) - financial institutions willing to vouch for the ETF. But who dares stand underwriter in this novel, potentially risky market?
Confirming the date for final amendments to all S-1s by Friday the 29th. The @SECGov has told issuers that applications that are fully finished and filed by Friday will be considered in the first wave. Anyone who is not will not be considered. In addition, the filings cannot… https://t.co/syyINu1BEI
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) December 24, 2023
Cash vs. In-Kind: Divide and Conquer: While seven applicants favor pure cash creation, others hedge their bets with a hybrid cash-in-kind approach. This diversity hints at the complexities of navigating the SEC's demands. And where's Ark, the first mover? They've submitted their adjusted filing, but the crucial AP partnership remains under wraps, a suspenseful cliffhanger left for the final act.
Happy S-1 Amendment Deadline Day to all (the maniacs) who celebrate.. unfort today may not tell us who is officially in the Cointucky Derby yet as most S-1s prob have blank space where AP name should go. Need those to declare horse qualified. Could see some today, but guessing… pic.twitter.com/o830GFqQvP
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 29, 2023
Hope Flickers Despite Past Rejections: The SEC's history of dismissing Bitcoin ETF proposals has dampened spirits, yet cautious optimism lingers. Industry vets like Balchunas and Seyffart sense a different tune this time. Could January 10th, 2024, finally witness the birth of the long-awaited Spot Bitcoin ETF?
ARK kicks off the S-1 Amendment-athon. Ahead of the pack as usual. Unclear yet what was changed tho, AP mentioned a ton but not named. Assuming that will prob come in the very final effective update just prior to launch. But we still don't know if they have signed agreement. https://t.co/mcNgpoR451
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 28, 2023
Main Street Meets Bitcoin: Imagine walking into your friendly neighborhood brokerage and buying Bitcoin as easily as Apple shares. An approved ETF unlocks this reality for retail investors, potentially flooding the market with new demand. Goodbye, complex crypto exchanges, hello, simple stock market access.
Transparency Takes Center Stage: The SEC's focus on cash settlements and named APs highlights their commitment to a transparent and accountable system. Every piece placed, every partnership revealed, adds clarity to the puzzle.
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
The Final Act Approaches: December 29th brings us closer to the climax. Will the SEC pieces finally fit together, granting Bitcoin its rightful place on the mainstream stage? Stay tuned, crypto fans, for the answer could reshape the financial landscape as we know it.