Crypto Community Bets On Spot ETFs

In anticipation of the SEC's decision on spot bitcoin-ETFs, the crypto community is divided into two camps: some are sharing predictions, while others are betting on its outcome.

On the gambling site Polymarket, built on the Polygon blockchain, there is an opportunity to bet on whether the regulator will approve applications for a spot bitcoin-ETF by January 15.

The proportion of "yes" bets is 80%

At the time of writing, the total amount of bets made exceeded $1.6 million. The vast majority of traders, 80%, bet on the "yes" option. The value of a stock that represents a potential outcome labeled as "yes" or "no" fluctuates similarly to the crypto market. Currently, the "yes" price is $0.78 and the "no" price is $0.23.

One of the largest holders bet $433k on "yes"

One of the largest holders of shares with the "yes" option under the nickname "kiwi" owns $433k worth of shares. His opponent "imba" - the largest holder of "no" shares - bet a little over $15k on the selected option.

If the SEC approves the filing, holders of "yes" shares will profit

If the SEC approves any of the filings up to and including Jan. 15, holders of yes shares will profit. Otherwise, they will all lose, and the profits will go to the "no" bettors.

Rumors of a positive SEC decision have surfaced online

Rumors have appeared on the network that the Commission may approve spot bitcoin-ETFs as early as today, January 5. This was written by TechCrunch journalist Jacqueline Melinek.

In addition, a positive decision of the SEC was also pointed out by the former Assistant to the President of the United States for Communications Anthony Scaramucci. On Twitter, he noted that everything has already been decided.

Bloomberg analysts are skeptical of the rumors

However, Bloomberg analysts were skeptical of such statements. Back in October, they predicted that regulators would approve the new instrument in the U.S. by January 10 with a 90% probability.